The only reason why I’m shorting at this point is because I’m looking for a 50-75 point correction, nothing more. There is a small chance that we can go up to 1220 on the S&P and face a 100 point correction, but I find that highly unlikely. My bet is at 1175-85.

As you read from my March 29th post I started shortin the QQQQ’s and SPY’s at 1175 up until 1225. I had my stop placed at 1230 and my last short sitting at 1220 as stated here. If you listened to my exact words, you would of been running to the bank on Thursday! I’ll be honest though, calling the bottom was near impossible. I’ve never witnessed a single day where we blew past the 50 and 200 day moving averages on the S&P. I exited my QQQQ/SPY shorts around 1144 on the S&P.

Here is a little snapshot of the huge success as recorded by Covester:

Chris P's Track Record on Covestor

I hope this helps everyone, happy trading!

Canadian Starwood Preferred Guest Credit Card by American Express

After being a die hard Starwood Preferred Guest and using my no fee SPG credit card via MBNA, I’m sad to announce that it has come to an end. SPG has decided to move with AMEX, where the customer service will be great, but the rewards will be less. American Express has decided that it needs to charge customers a $120 annual fee for the same rewards we would of received at MBNA. Clearly this was a business decision on SPG’s end and not a move to help their customers.

Canadian credit cards are going to become more difficult to choose now, simply because it seems like every company is forcing annual fee’s and rediculous interest rates. The new interest rate will be 19.99% with AMEX. How they justify such extreme interest rates and annual fee’s is beyond me. But only we are to blame for this mess.

Here are some notes on the new American Express (AMEX) Starwood Preferred Guest (SPG) credit card:

 The Pro

• $1 = 1 point, the same rate as MBNA’s SPG card
• Free weekend night after $40,000 in annual purchases
• Automatic upgrade to Gold Preferred Guest after $30,000 in annual purchases
• 10,000 welcome bonus points
• TRAVEL: Car rental & damange insurance, travel accident insurance, travel emergency insurance, baggage insurance, plus more.

The Con

• Removal of the 5000 point bonus for every $10,000 spent annualy, up to 15,000 bonus points
• $120 annual fee
• Mastercard is more widely used then American Express (MBNA was Mastercard)
• No more travel insurance, just regular insurance.
  

  Canadian MBNA Starwood credit card

All in all, you’d expect that that SPG would off their customers more for moving with American Express.  AMEX has higher merchant fee’s, annual fee’s, and they decided to offer much less then MBNA. There is no need to switch over with AMEX unless you like to be ripped off, they simply aren’t offering the same program as MBNA. It looks like us Canadian customers will have to look at a new credit card because AMEX SPG outright stinks.

You can visit any of their websites here:

Starwood Preferred Guest / American Express / MBNA Canada

Also, I’ve liquidated all my gold stocks and ETF’s until the correction takes place. The only commodity I’m still holding it physical gold.

It should be a great few weeks of trading for everyone following my lead. Enjoy!

• S&P will be range bound, between 1025 and 1250. We definitely won’t past 1250. I believe our low will be 1050 precisely. If we fall below, buy buy buy!
• Companies that profit and have cash will surge. Companies without the cash are going to get slaughtered. Expect a lot of volatility in the micro perspective of the stock market, but on the macro perspective the index will be range bound.
• Blue chip companies like GE, POM will have a banner years.
• I’m expecting Gold to continue towards $1500-$2000 this year.
• The banking sector will strengthen in the later half of the year with companies like Bank of America leading the charge. I like Citigroup as well.

Overall, this can be a great year for many of us as long as we stick to the right sectors at the right time. I wish everyone luck in their trading!

Gold breaks the $1,000 barrier in Q1 2009.

DOW will not hold at 7500, I’m looking for the break in late Q1 or Q2.

Gold miners (equities) will be the top performer for 2009 (AUY, ABX, NEM, ABX, GG).

Gold definitely broke that $1000 mark in the first quarter, DOW ended up breaking 7500 and falling below 7000, and Gold miners were outstanding! I deserve a little pat on the back. Normally this post would be long, but when you ACE a year, there is no explaining to do!

Chris Pavlovski Joins Next Giant Leap for the Google Lunar X Prize

I’m happy to announce my appointment with NGL (Next Giant Leap) as the director of marketing. As many of you already know, one of my dear hobbies is space exploration. Joining a team like NGL enables me to participate in something I love, and it also allows me to help humanity achieve new goals. Our team includes space enthusiasts like Michael Joyce, Todd Mosher and even former NASA astronaut Jeffrey Hoffman. On the institutional front, we have MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and on the corporate front we have Sierra Nevada Corporation, Draper Corporation and Aurora Corporation. Simply put, I think we have the strongest team in the Google Lunar X Prize and I feel privileged to join such a team.

In an investment perspective, ten years from now the space exploration industry will be what the Internet was in 1995, so there is no better time to pull up the sleeves and get digging. As of today, we are slowly watching the government lessen their role in space exploration and put it into the hands of the private sector. This is where NGL hopes to take grip become the leader in space assignments. My role at NGL is simple. I’ll be heading the corporate sponsorships, donations and internet marketing strategies. So if anyone is interested in getting involved on an investment standpoint, I’m the man you need to talk to You can easily reach me at chris AT nextgiantleap.com

Below is a copy of the press release stating my involvement with NGL.

Chris Pavlovski Jumps Aboard Next Giant Leap

Next Giant Leap, a space exploration company, has appointed Chris Pavlovski as its new Director of Marketing.

DENVER, Jan. 15 /PRNewswire/ — Next Giant Leap, a space exploration company competing for the Google Lunar X PRIZE, has officially announced the appointment of Chris Pavlovski as their Director of Marketing. Mr. Pavlovski is currently the CEO of JMG – Jolt Media Group Ltd., a privately held digital media company based in Toronto, Canada.

Chris is a veteran in online marketing and advertising. At JMG, Chris works with various advertising agencies and companies including Warner Bros., Universal Studios, Virgin Mobile, Coors, Verizon, Publicis, Omnicom, Yahoo and MTV. He was instrumental in the development of various patent pending advertising formats used by over 50 different fortune 500 companies. His studies included Economics and Computer Science at the University of Toronto.

“For most people, space exploration is an old thought. I’m here to change that and bring a new age marketing strategy that will help take NGL to the moon,” says Chris Pavlovski. He also adds, “Our team is cutting edge and it’s a privilege to work with institutions, companies and individuals like MIT, Sierra Nevada Corp. and former NASA astronaut, Jeffrey Hoffman.”

“Reaching for the moon is a bold endeavor that requires a broad spectrum of expertise and talent,” said CEO of Next Giant Leap, Michael Joyce. “I am very pleased to have Chris join our team! 2010 will certainly be an exciting year for Next Giant Leap.”

ABOUT NEXT GIANT LEAP
Next Giant Leap is a consortium of industry and academia organized to win the Google Lunar X PRIZE. The team’s lead systems integrator is Sierra Nevada Corporation, known for its innovation in small spacecraft. In 2008, the Sierra Nevada Corp. Space Systems division was awarded a contract to build 18 Orbcomm satellites with an option for 30 more. Leading the difficult task of final descent and safe landing on the lunar surface is Draper Laboratory. Draper has been involved in space guidance navigation and control since the earliest days of the space program, supporting Apollo, the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. The Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the leading engineering institution in the United States, is Next Giant Leap’s key academic partner. The MIT team includes five time Shuttle astronaut Jeff Hoffman and Professor David Miller, head of MIT’s Space Systems Laboratory and developer of the innovative SPHERES (Synchronized Position Hold Engage and Reorient Experimental Satellites) payload on the International Space Station. The MIT team has constructed “Talaris”, a flying earth based “hopper” that allows development and testing of the critical lunar landing and mobility system. Another innovative small company that has partnered with the team is Aurora Flight Sciences, a company that operates on the frontiers of flight with specialties in unmanned aerial vehicles. For more information, please visit www.nextgiantleap.com.

ABOUT THE GOOGLE LUNAR X PRIZE
The $30 million prize purse is segmented into a $20 million Grand Prize, a $5 million Second Prize and $5 million in bonus prizes. To win the Grand Prize, a team must successfully soft land a privately funded spacecraft on the Moon, rove on the lunar surface for a minimum of 500 meters, and transmit a specific set of video, images and data back to the Earth. For more information about the Google Lunar X PRIZE, please visit www.googlelunarxprize.org.

ABOUT THE X PRIZE FOUNDATION
The X PRIZE Foundation is an educational nonprofit prize institute whose mission is to create radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity. In 2004, the Foundation captured the world’s attention when the Burt Rutan-led team, backed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, built and flew the world’s first private spaceship to win the $10 million ANSARI X PRIZE for suborbital spaceflight. The Foundation has since launched the $10 million Archon X PRIZE for Genomics, the $30 million Google Lunar X PRIZE, and the $10 million Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE. The Foundation and its revolution partner, BT Global Services, are creating prizes in Exploration (Space and Oceans), Life Sciences, Energy & Environment, Education and Global Development. The Foundation is widely recognized as the leading model for fostering innovation through competition. For more information, please visit www.xprize.org.

Hawaii 2009

Waikiki Beach near the Hilton

Me Pretending to be a good Surfer

Holding a Surfboard at the Hilton in Waikiki

Sheraton Resort in Kauai

Breakfest at the Sheraton in Kauai

ABOVE: Me showing off my horrible hula dance skills! Remind me to take lessons next time! And no, I’m not drunk, just really bad!

My first experience with US Airways was a few years back, they lost my luggage and it took months upon months to get reimbursed. Not to mention flight delays on every single connection. After my first experience I vowed to stay away from the airline but then came December 2009. I wanted to get somewhere warm for the holidays and for some reason the only ticket was with US Airways. Figuring things have changed since they joined Star Alliance, I decided to upgrade to first class on the way to Hawaii (for $250 per person) and avoid any type of baggage problems. Granted the security increase and delays were not their fault on December 26th, but they still managed to lose my luggage once again. There was no first class dinner menu, instead my only option was Mahi Mahi and I’m not the biggest fish fan. Not to mention that a flight from Toronto to Hawaii is 14 hours, US Airways had the nerve to tell me it will cost $7 dollars to use a blanket on the plane after I spent $4000 on two tickets (thats what you get for booking during busy season)!

Alright, so first class was horrible in comparison to my favorites Lufthansa and Air Canada. On my return from Hawaii I had coach seats. As I check in at the airport the first thing they ask for is $50 dollars for my two checked bags. Once I finally take my seat in the plane I find out that in economy class you need to pay for your meal. This airline is starting to sound like Ryanair and Easyjet, but I only paid $50 to fly with them suppose to $4500 with US Airways. After countless delays and finally sitting down in my coach seat in the last row, the stewardess announces that they have run out of food.

Conclusion… I’m a technical kind of guy and US Airways is looking kind of bullish on the stock charts [LCC], but I wouldn’t touch this airline with a 10 foot pole. As for Star Alliance, they better knock this piece of crap airline off their menu. US AIRWAYS SUCKS!

Investing in India is not as easy as thought...

I’ve been involved with what I consider to be a very large investment in India. Basically, a few partners any myself were intersted in getting into the financial industry and after thorough research India seemed to be the most Westernized and attractice BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nation. English is fairly predominant, people enjoy the likes of Dominos, Subway,  and Pizza Hut. Personally, I’ve grown up with many Indian people around me, I’m used to speaking to Indian call centers and I frequently run into Indian software developers (due to one of my core businesses). All in all, from Canada there’s only a positive experience and great expectations for India.

I want to start off by saying, don’t invest in India. If you have plans to invest in India, make sure you know exactly what you are getting into. You can have the best team in the world and significant financing but when you play ball in India, it’s not your team that matters, its theirs! Indian culture is slow, significantly slower then the Caribbean. Indian attitude is quite positive for the most part, but follow through does not exist. Without any follow through, nothing can happen.

For example, you can walk into a bank and ’try’ to open up an account (good luck!). One week later you will ask if your account is ready and they will say, ‘yes yes, any moment’. 4 weeks later your account won’t be open and you’ll have a stranger knock on your door to verify your address. 8 weeks later they finally say your account is open (assuming you called and visited 20x already). Then when you try to take your cash out, you’ll need to wait another 4 weeks for your PIN. This sounds crazy, but crazy is true in India.

In addition, sending financing to our Indian corporation was an absolute mess. Our bank needed to send multiple messages verifying who was sending the money, why were sending it, etc. The bank held our funds for weeks, then once they confirmed who sent the funds, there was an enornous amount of paperwork to withdrawal these funds or use them in any capacity. Frankly, India is a joke for business. This type of red tape doesn’t exist in the western world and if India wants to be like us, they have a mountain to climb.

We also investigated the possibility of opening a franchise in India, whether it be a Mcdonalds or Dominos, both options were not viable. In India, the only way you can become ‘part’ of a franchise is to buy the real estate and rent out your property to the Franchise. Meaning, you won’t run the franchise, you won’t make money off the franchise, you will only make money on a lease agreement for 15 years. Why do they call it a franchise!!?

Overall, India was a great experience. The people I worked with on our project were AAA guys and we all learned a boatload of things. The biggest message was DO NOT INVEST IN INDIA. Pick any place else, just not India. Being misled in India is common practice to avoid the feeling of shame or guilt. It just seems like there is an obsessive issue with pride and when doing business in India the attitude is always ‘let’s do it’ without actually doing it. In India, talk is cheap.