Now for the market, I’ve sold off everything around the 1175 on the S&P. I really don’t see the market surpassing 1185 until we go back to 1100 first. In fact, I’ve taken a small short position on QQQQ (Nasdaq index). If the market continues to move up, I’ll continue to build my SMALL short on QQQQ while I wait for a correction. It’s important to mention that my overall status is still a bull. The only reason why I’m shorting at this point is because I’m looking for a 50-75 point correction, nothing more. There is a small chance that we can go up to 1220 on the S&P and face a 100 point correction, but I find that highly unlikely. My bet is at 1175-85.

Happy trading everyone!

• S&P will be range bound, between 1025 and 1250. We definitely won’t past 1250. I believe our low will be 1050 precisely. If we fall below, buy buy buy!
• Companies that profit and have cash will surge. Companies without the cash are going to get slaughtered. Expect a lot of volatility in the micro perspective of the stock market, but on the macro perspective the index will be range bound.
• Blue chip companies like GE, POM will have a banner years.
• I’m expecting Gold to continue towards $1500-$2000 this year.
• The banking sector will strengthen in the later half of the year with companies like Bank of America leading the charge. I like Citigroup as well.

Overall, this can be a great year for many of us as long as we stick to the right sectors at the right time. I wish everyone luck in their trading!

1. Yamana Gold – Ticker AUY

2. New Gold – Ticker NGD

3. Gold ETF’s = HGU.TO & GDX & GLD

You can also expect Silver to follow a similar pattern to Gold, so you can also load up on the silver ETF SLV. Good luck trading everyone!

Silver is looking still looking far more bullish then gold, any pullback below $13.90 can reverse that trend. Until that point I will be loading up on various silver miners and the silver etf, SLV.

The Plays

• Yamanna (AUY) long position, still holding and buying on pullbacks.
• HMS Holdings (HMSY), exited my short position after a $2.00 drop yesterday.
• GLD and SLV, buying on all pullbacks with a stop loss set around $940 and $13.30 respectively.
• Watching General Electric (GE) for another major pullback, if so, I will enter long.

Happy trading everyone!

• Dow collapsed under 7500 in Q1
• Gold broke the $1000 an ounce mark in Q1

At the time of those predictions, many people doubted me. Clearly, both were nailed with precision. That aside, I’m still a little concerned with how things turned out for me today…

• Shorted HMSY
• Debated on going long on GE, but ultimately opted out of doing so. Things looked icky on the charts.
• Bought shares of AUY (will explain later)
• Built my position on GDX
• Boughs shares of NGD

It was a full day to say the least. Let me review my AUY position…  Ultimately, I’m bullish on this stock but my entrance on AUY was horrible. I sat analyzing the charts for 2 hours after I entered and decided I’m going to hold it over the weekend. Typically, I wanted to wait for a clean pullback in the miners like we witnessed yesterday. Two straight days of pullback would of cleaned up my charts and had me off to the races. So why did I buy AUY? Well gold made a dramatic break upwards and the gains on the miners were modest. I don’t love the trade, but I’m going to live with it.

On another note, we saw another bone crushing day on the stock indexes. The DOW reached new lows, but the midday bounce back has me thinking we are going to see some more volatility going forward. I didn’t touch GE for this exact reason, next week could see sub 7000, and if dramatic enough, that’s when I’ll feel more comfortable taking long positions on consumer staples. Until then, I feel safe in the miners, specifically Silver and Gold stocks.

I hope everyone reaped the gains that I should have today Making only 1% on a day like today feels like crap!

On the other end, Gold and Silver kept pushing higher. I was really hoping for a pull back here, just to keep my charts healthy and create a buying opportunity for myself. Instead I picked up a small amount of GDX (Gold Miners) since it didn’t make the break upwards like the actual metal today. I’m still anxiously waiting for a pull back in gold or silver, these are not plays I want to be sitting on the sidelines for. I will continue to build on GDX or HGU as the miners make pullbacks.

Tomorrow I’ll be specifically looking for entrance points in gold, silver and the miners. GE and DOW would need to make huge gaps downwards if I purchase in them.

• I’ll be buying GE around $9.80 in premarket or first hour.
• I’ll be buying DOW around 8.10 in permarket or first hour.
• I’ll be shorting NFLX around $39.00
• I’ll be buying SLV around $13.50
• I’ll be buying GLD around $940

That’s my game plan right now, and that’s only for February 18th. The charts change daily, so obviously none of this applies for me after mid-day on the 18th. Happy trading!

Covestor - 1 Month Track Record

January was a great month once again. Although my Covestor is saying I’m up modestly for the month and only slightly better then the Index, it simply isn’t true (I’m killing the index!). When I joined Covestor, it took my position and holding prices based on the day I joined, not the actual price I purchased my holdings for. Before joining I purchased AUY at full tilt around $4.25 per share, when I joined Covestor, AUY was at $7+ and I sold AUY at around $6.60. So after making a huge profit, Covestor wasn’t showing the true return (150%+). Here is a graph from Covestor with the tracked success.

Anyways, January was GREAT. Every trade I made was a winner except NNDS (I lost 5 cents and that was in Feb’09). Below I have lsited my upcoming thoughts on the market for February and forward.

• 1. DOW should touch 6500-7000. 
• 2. Silver will lead gold, both will be fantastic plays. I’m building positions in GLD, SLV, ABQ, CA:HGU, UGL. I’ve opted to play ETF’s over the direct miners, although I’m very bull on AUY.
• 3. Inflation is the key issue, I believe gold/silver has begun its run upwards already, inflation will occur in Q3, and possibly late Q2.
• 4. TBT is a solid play. I took a nice position in it with another brokerage account. I expect 20+ US treasuries bonds to pay much more then 2.5% interest by end of year. This is almost a given.

Good luck everyone!

• Gold breaks the $1,000 barrier in Q1 2009.
• DOW will not hold at 7500, I’m looking for the break in late Q1 or Q2. 
• Gold miners (equities) will be the top performer for 2009 (AUY, ABX, NEM, ABX, GG).

Good luck trading in 2009, I hope it goes well!