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  • The Metal Boom or Bubble?

    Posted on February 16th, 2009 No comments

    Gold Coins & Bullion

    Gold Coins & Bullion

    If you’ve been playing commodities in the last month, you are one of the few cashing in. Earlier in the year I said Silver would lead Gold (it has), and Gold would hit $1000 USD per ounce by the end of Q1 (almost there). But the big question remains, will it get better or worse? Should we be taking profits or building? Here is my take…

    Gold: If you look at gold over 2008, it out performed the S&P dearly. If you look at gold in 2009, it’s been destroying the S&P. Will it get better for gold? Judging by the charts, it looks like Gold is poised to make a severe run upwards. Currently we sit at $942.50, and  I’m expecting $1000 an ounce in March and I don’t think we will see less then $1000 an ounce for quite some time. If gold shows a positive day Tuesday February 17, you can count me in as a gold bull. I will build positions in CA:HGU, AUY, GLD, and possibly UGL on specific pullbacks (assuming my charts line up).

    Silver: Unlike gold, I actually hold a position in Silver, both physically and with SLV. I have been holding since $12.30ish and a 2nd entrance at $12.90ish. Today we are sitting at $13.60. I’ve been a heavy bull on silver for the past weeks simply because the charts have looked better. With the dramtic stimulus package out of China and with the rest of the world doing the same, industrial metals such as silver and copper are going to ride the wave of anticipation and eventually true demand. Although silver doesn’t inherit the same type of safe haven status like gold does, it definitely resembles gold much more then copper. When I look at silver, I see a hybrid between copper and silver and in this stae of economy, something like Silver is going to lead the way in what I’m predicting as a boom for the metals.

    GOLD SILVER S&P 500

    GOLD SILVER S&P 500

     

    At the end of the day, assuming all my charts are in order, I’ll continue to be a bull on the metals. The chart above says it all. Enjoy trading!

  • January ’09 in Review

    Posted on February 16th, 2009 No comments

    Covestor - 1 Month Track Record

    Covestor - 1 Month Track Record

    January was a great month once again. Although my Covestor is saying I’m up modestly for the month and only slightly better then the Index, it simply isn’t true (I’m killing the index!). When I joined Covestor, it took my position and holding prices based on the day I joined, not the actual price I purchased my holdings for. Before joining I purchased AUY at full tilt around $4.25 per share, when I joined Covestor, AUY was at $7+ and I sold AUY at around $6.60. So after making a huge profit, Covestor wasn’t showing the true return (150%+). Here is a graph from Covestor with the tracked success.

     

    Anyways, January was GREAT. Every trade I made was a winner except NNDS (I lost 5 cents and that was in Feb’09). Below I have lsited my upcoming thoughts on the market for February and forward.

    • 1. DOW should touch 6500-7000. 
    • 2. Silver will lead gold, both will be fantastic plays. I’m building positions in GLD, SLV, ABQ, CA:HGU, UGL. I’ve opted to play ETF’s over the direct miners, although I’m very bull on AUY.
    • 3. Inflation is the key issue, I believe gold/silver has begun its run upwards already, inflation will occur in Q3, and possibly late Q2.
    • 4. TBT is a solid play. I took a nice position in it with another brokerage account. I expect 20+ US treasuries bonds to pay much more then 2.5% interest by end of year. This is almost a given.

    Good luck everyone!